的车辆检测(300 572。SZ)深度报告:喧嚣之后万亿美元的市场,高增长的主要业务

行业和公司

的车辆检测(300 572。SZ)深度报告:喧嚣之后万亿美元的市场,高增长的主要业务

观点的核心点:短期测试设备放量,在中国长期的利基市场,汽车保有量大幅增加后,逐步提高车辆的车龄,生下1个万亿汽车的市场空间(汽车维修与保养,融资后,二手车,测试服务等。); 公司作为国内领先的汽车检测设备(10十亿的市场空间),拓展检测设备业务的同时,布局下车辆检验服务(50十亿的市场空间,40个台站的当前布局),具有延展性强的企业,开拓新的成长室; 长期的,短期的业务进入快速增长。

短期空间:从股市及汽车政策的四轮驱动的好处是目前强制检测设备行业十大十亿的市场空间,低浓度(CR4 <10), the advantages of domestic enterprises are safe car testing, Shijiazhuang, China and South Yan instrument。There are two main driving force of the industry: first, car ownership and the average age of growth for the industry overall frequency of testing growth is expected in the next six years the average annual compound growth rate of 11%; second, the government liberalized the downstream inspection station barriers to entry pricing and testing, the number of private capital into the inspection station to promote growth。Testing equipment company as leading enterprises are expected to benefit。Long-term space: the large card-bit automotive market, opportunities and risks automotive testing services market space, with the inspection station for the gradual liberalization of private capital, the company ushered in a new development opportunities, the current layout has 40 inspection stations, and continue to increase the probability of detecting a large distribution services business, we believe the company has a strong ability to improve profitability inspection station, improve company performance。In the long run, relying on the advantages of aspects of the post-test stand in the automotive market data, testing equipment and capability, with the larger car market service capabilities (used cars)。

风险提示: 首先,公司所处的行业是显著受政策影响; 第二,下游客户新的支付服务排气遥感监视系统是相对较弱的现有客户; 第三,该公司目前缺乏运营管理检查站的经验,在与下行存在管理不善的风险获得盈利。

投资逻辑:该公司是一个更纯粹的汽车市场1万亿后的主题,从汽车保有量的大幅增长中受益,增加了车辆的年龄,法律和法规的快速增长,提高,传统的核心业务,并通过车辆年检向下延伸服务站的布局,地方牌汽车后市场,更大的发展空间。我们预计18/19/20年分别实现净利润1.2/1.7/2.200 000 000,对应于当前的股票价格PE分别为42.2X / 29.9X / 22.3倍,给药40次估值19,54对应于合理的估值。65元,维持“增持”评级。

证券分析师:梁超S0980515080001;

联系人:何君毅;

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